Retail returns are turning into a billion-dollar headache

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Woah, scammers are getting scary good using the ‘best’ part of AI to pull off the absolute worst frauds.

• Walmart makes it easy to scale 🚀
• Returns are about to go billion-dollar big 💸
• AI just cloned 100K brands 🤖
• That "out of stock" feeling? 😧

HOT TOPIC

What used to be a simple “process it and forget it” task is now hitting margins, customer loyalty, and fraud control all at once. 

According to EMARKETER, U.S. retail return volume is projected to reach nearly $877B in 2026. True enough, this structural cost is growing alongside ecommerce.

📊 The numbers are staggering

Returns are no longer just about shipping labels, they’re a full-on business cost.

• Global retail refund volume rose 18.1% in 2025, with refund value up 12.7% YoY.
• November–December alone accounted for roughly 20% of all refunds.
• Every $1M in refunds ends up costing $1.3M after logistics, depreciation, fees, and fraud.

💔 Loyalty is on the line

Returns frustrate customers, and bad experiences stick:

• 55% of US consumers returned or planned to return items after 2025 holidays
• 21% returned items more than once a month (Ada)
• Only 36% were “very satisfied” with the returns process
• Top frustrations: unexpected fees (42%), shipping hassles (41%), unclear policies (32%)
• 57% said a poor returns experience affects whether they’ll buy again

Returns sometimes mean opportunity for abuse:

• 15% of all returns were fraudulent 
• Over a third of consumers admitted to some form of return-related fraud
• 85% of retailers have experienced return-related fraud

Returns used to be “back-office busywork.” Now they’re a triple threat: money, loyalty, fraud. The brands that survive and thrive will be the ones who tame the beast without scaring the customer.

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BITES OF THE WEEK

• Global Growth Made Easy:  Amazon’s new Sell Globally feature guides sellers step-by-step, tracking compliance and progress across international expansion.
• Easyship Amazon Boost: U.S. Amazon sellers can now handle FBM, SFP, and Business orders from one dashboard, simplifying compliance, Prime delivery, and B2B fulfillment
• eBay’s Blocking Agents: Starting February 20, eBay will block unauthorized AI agents from placing orders, prioritizing controlled automation and marketplace integrity over open agentic shopping.
• Amazon’s U.S. Impact: In 2025, Amazon invested a record $340B in the U.S., creating jobs, advancing AI, and boosting local economies.

BLACK MARKET

Scammers just built 100K "official" stores with AI

You know how everyone’s saying AI is making it easier to build things? 

But unfortunately, the same tools helping founders launch websites with just one prompt are also helping scammers spin up polished, “official-looking” stores in minutes.

😧 And the scary part is…

Fake websites don’t look scammy anymore. According to Netcraft, 100,000 AI-generated websites impersonating nearly 200 brands were identified last year.

AI lets scammers:

• Clone official-looking sites fast
• Run targeted ads to fans of specific brands
• Show up in sponsored Google results
• Operate without spammy emails or obvious phishing

Consumers think: “You Googled it. It’s on page one. How could it be bad?” That assumption is exactly what scammers are betting on.

🚩 The red flags are subtler now

The usual warnings still apply:

• Discounts that are too good to be true
• Slightly off URLs 
• Sponsored links that look “official”

But here’s the real issue: AI is making fakes look normal.

🔐 You ARE the target

If you’re running an ecomm brand, this isn’t just a consumer problem.

You now have to:

• Monitor impersonation sites
• Watch sponsored search placements
• Warn customers proactively
• Protect your brand equity before it gets hijacked

To be clear, AI didn’t invent scams. It just made them faster, cheaper, and harder to detect.

ACTIONABLE ADVICE

Avoid stockouts before they happen

Clicking “Out of Stock” on your own listing and feeling that pit in your stomach. Missing stock doesn’t just mean lost sales, it slows growth, hurts your ads, and can even cost you the Buy Box.

Here’s how to stay in-stock and in control:

• Pick a forecasting window
  • Use the last 30–60 days as a baseline
  • Check seasonality vs. last year
  • Factor in promos or special events
• Clean your data
  • Remove stockout days, suppressed listings, promo spikes, and paused ads
• Calculate true sales rate
  • Daily Demand = Units Sold ÷ In-Stock Days
• Add lead time
  • Factor supplier, shipping, customs, Amazon check-in, plus a buffer for delays
• Add safety stock
  • 7–14 days for steady products
  • 14–30 days if lead times or category swings are volatile
• Set reorder point
  • Reorder Point = Lead Time Demand + Safety Stock
  • Order before panic sets in
• Make a monthly plan
  • Monthly Order Qty = (Daily Demand × Target Coverage Days) – Current Inventory

Your next stockout doesn’t have to be your next headache.